Easter - A Time of Rebirth and Renewal

Sunday, March 31, 2013

Celebrating Easter... the Foundation of my Faith

(Note: to those friends of mine who are not Christian, I hope you have enjoyed your traditions, religious or otherwise, at this time of year.  Though our religious beliefs may differ, our friendship may endure under the God who made us all.  My best wishes to you and your families during this season of spring and new life.)

In this season of rebirth and renewal, as buds reappear on the trees after a long winter, and the blades of grass green, and the plants push through the once frozen soil, we are reminded of He who was dead and yet now lives, even Jesus Christ. But this wondrous event of the resurrection was necessarily preceded by the sacrifice of our Redeemer and as the hymn reflects my own thoughts,

"I stand all amazed at the love Jesus offers me,

Confused at the grace that so fully he proffers me.

I tremble to know that for me he was crucified,

that for me, a sinner, he suffered, he bled and died.

 

I marvel that he would descend from his throne divine

To RESCUE a soul so rebellious and proud as mine,

that he should extend his great love unto such as I,

Sufficient to own, to redeem, and to justify.

 

I think of his hands pierced and bleeding to pay the debt:

such mercy, such love, and devotion can I forget?

No, no, I iwll praise and adore at the mercy seat,

Until at the glorified throne I kneel at his feet.

 

Oh, it is wonderful that he should care for me Enough to die for me!

Oh, it is wonderful, wonderful to me!"

(Charles H. Gabriel 1856-1932)

Know that the promise of the Atonement, begun in Gethsemane and culminating on Golgotha, is for us all, if we will but repent of our transgressions and accept Christ's redeeming power.  Christ has felt every pain, every anguish, whether physical, emotional, or spiritual.

It is Christ's suffering that satisfies the law of justice that all sins must be punished, and through his mercy, grace and love, he tempers that law for each of us. How unloving would we be if we allow Him to have suffered on our behalf, having already paid the price, and we do nothing? All he asks, is that we love Him and love our neighbor, and we do that by obeying His word and abandoning sin. By doing so we show our love for all He has done for us and we make effective in our lives His Atonement. This is the road to Eternal Life.

And now on this Easter day we celebrate the gift given to all mankind by the Savior. The Resurrection; the promise that all will live again with a body perfected and immortal.

Knowing that Christ lives is my testimony. And more, He has provided a way back to live with him and our Father in Heaven through His atoning sacrifice, for which "I Stand All Amazed!"

This hymn summarizes well my testimony:

"I know that my Redeemer lives. What comfort this sweet sentence gives! He lives, he lives, who once was dead. He lives, my ever living Head. He lives to bless me with his love. he lives to plead for me above. He lives my hungry soul to feed. He lives to bless in time of need.

He lives to grant me rich supply. He lives to guide me with his eye. He lives to comfort me when faint. He lives to hear my soul's complaint. He lives to silence all my fears. He lives to wipe away my tears. He lives to calm my troubled heart. he lives all blessings to impart.

He lives, my kind, wise heavenly Friend. He lives and loves me to the end. He lives, and while he lives, I'll sing. He lives, my Prophet, Priest, and King. He lives and grants me daily breath. He lives, and I shall conquer death. He lives my mansion to prepare. He lives to bring me safely there

.

He lives! All glory to his name! He lives, my Savior, still the same. Oh, sweet the joy this sentence gives: "I know that my Redeemer lives!" He lives! All glory to his name! He lives, my Savior, still the same. Oh, sweet the joy this sentence gives: "I know that my Redeemer lives!"

(Text: Samuel Medley, 1738-1799; Music: Lewis D. Edwards, 1858-1921)

  May God bless you, your family and friends.  And, may we be worthy to receive His blessings.

Deborah, but Borah to all who knew her... RIP

Not only did this come unexpectedly but causes us great sadness to not have Borah with us.  She was an accomplished and outstanding human being and an outspoken proponent of our constitutional freedoms.  It was a wonderful pleasure to be around her and her wonderful attitude and spirit.  Our association on the Republican National Committee was our gain... and now our loss.  My deepest condolences to Borah's family, may God bless them in this time of loss; may He give solace by the fact that her good life is a witness to His glory.  Now she joins Him who is the maker of us all.  (see the message sent by the Republican Party of Texas)

Rest In Peace, Borah Van Dormolen The Texas Federation of Republican Women and the Republican Party of Texas, together, with heavy hearts, have been asked by the family to inform those in Borah’s Republican family of the tragic passing of our beloved friend, Lt. Col. Borah Van Dormolen.  Borah passed away at 2:00 pm this afternoon as the result of a serious heart attack she suffered last week.  All of us who are members of the TFRW and are active within the RPT are devastated by the loss of such a wonderful woman who devoted so much of her life to the betterment of her country.  After serving her country in the US Army and achieving the rank of Lt. Colonel, Borah continued to commit her life to promoting the values of liberty and freedom when others might have retired quietly. In 2010 she was honored as the “Distinguished Military Retiree” for Texas for her outstanding contributions to both active duty and retired service members and their families. She also held a gubernatorial appointment to the Texas State Cemetery Commission.  As of today, Borah was serving her second term as Republican National Committeewoman from Texas and had recently been elected to represent the Lone Star State on the Rules Committee of the RNC.  She also served as President of the Texas Federation of Republican Women, and dedicated her many talents to different board positions within the TFRW for many years.  She also served on the Executive Committee of Maggie’s List, a political action committee focused on recruiting, training and supporting women running for congressional office.  Borah was not only a servant but also a mentor for candidates and volunteers and was responsible for hosting candidate trainings across the state of Texas.  Borah has been active in hundreds of campaigns, organizing and leading volunteers in critical voter identification and Get Out the Vote efforts. Through all of her volunteer work, Borah found time to be a loving wife. She and her husband, Rich Castle, recently celebrated their 25th wedding anniversary on a cruise through the Pacific Republican leaders and friends across the state and nation today mourn her loss. From Republican Party of Texas Chairman Steve Munisteri, “One of the great privileges of my life is to get to know and work with someone whom I consider to be an amazing woman, Borah Van Dormolen.  Over the past several years I have had a chance to personally observe her tireless work on behalf of the Republican Party of Texas but more importantly on behalf of the country she loved dearly and served so well for so long. It is hard to believe that she is gone, having just been with her at last weekend’s SREC meeting when she was her usual, passionate, energetic and inspiring self. What always impressed me the most about Borah was her kind hearted spirit and how she always treated other people with dignity and respect.  There will never be another Borah and we will miss her deeply.  On behalf of the RPT family, we extend our heartfelt condolences to her husband, Rich, and to her family.” From Texas Federation of Republican Women President, Carolyn Hodges, “TFRW mourns the passing of our dear friend and colleague, Borah Van Dormolen.  Borah was an inspiration to me as I began my path as a Republican Woman.  Her leadership in the Texas Federation of Republican Women was bold and decisive.  Her common sense, her sense of humor, intelligence, and caring for Republicans set her apart from others.  She was a dynamic and enthusiastic leader who was respected and loved across our state and nation.  Borah traveled tirelessly across Texas giving her all.  Everyone who met and heard Borah immediately began to share her enthusiasm and vision.  Let us all carry on as Borah would want us to do and be the Republicans she would be proud of - focusing on unity.” At this time, memorial arrangements are pending.  The RPT and TFRW will inform you of the details as soon as we have them.

Sequester... a Fabricated Disaster

It is incredibly disengenuous of the POTUS to be playing the blame game on something that he created...  As his former chief of staff was fond of saying, "Never let a crisis go to waste..."; why should you if you can leverage it with the media and the public to marginalize your opposition and ultimately get what you want.  Remember, only in Washington D.C. is a "Cut" defined as a reduction in next years "Increase"!  That is what we are talking about.  What it really does is take everyone's attention away from the really important work of tax reform, entitlement reform, energy costs, a failing foreign policy, and more.  The master of deflection and misdirection has done it again... we are talking about "crumbs" when we need to be talking about the pie.

"These are the times that try men's souls..."

"These are the times that try men's souls: The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman."

Thomas Paine wrote those words when it looked like we might lose the American Revolution.  There were many who were simply walking away from the battlefield and the army.  It was a difficult time and Paine was challenging those who despaired to reflect on their own character, to ask the question if they were "fair weather" (sunshine) patriots or had the spirit of perseverance regardless of obstacles and set-backs.

We find ourselves needing to ask ourselves the same questions.  We still love our country.  We still have a duty to defend the constitution and its principles.  We still have wonderful leaders who will fight for our cause.  We need to carry on.

There is no question that as the election data is collected, sliced, diced, and analyzed, we will find chinks in our armor.  We already know that we have work to do to reach out better to women, youth, and minorities.  But we need not, nor should not despair.  Let's take a moment... a brief moment to lick our wounds of defeat and to rejoice in our victories (yes, we did have some of those too!) and then "let us not shrink from the service of (our) country".  Let's welcome the feeling of vitality and energy and face with courage, the challenge before us.

President Obama did not receive a mandate from the electorate.  And though we must stand by our principles, we must also do as our nominee encouraged us last night, and pray for our president and our country.  I like the old saying that we must "Pray like everything depends on God, and work like everything depends on us".

I am by design an optimistic person but I do not see through "rose colored" glasses either.  I do have hope, which overcomes discouragement and I do have faith that we can affect those around us in a positive way.  But it does depend on each of us.  I hope and pray that we can "stand by it now" and work together to accomplish what is necessary to preserve our country for our children and grandchildren.

This morning my friend Pete Ricketts from Nebraska reminded me of one of my favorite quotes from Winston Churchill,

"Never give in--never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense.  Never yield to force, never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy."

God bless you and God bless the United States of America.

Bruce R. Hough
National Committeeman, Utah
www.brucehough.blogspot.com

Why Mitt Wins Ohio

Some really great analysis on why Mitt wins Ohio!

EARLY VOTING RESULTS: DisReport Forecasts Mitt Romney Will Likely Win Ohio

by Trevor Antley and Calvin Roberts.

Forecast: Mitt Romney Will Likely Win Ohio

Abstract: Actual reported early voting data requires that early voting will represent no more than 32% of total vote in Ohio, while virtually every poll was weighted for early voting to occupy ~35-40% of total votes cast. The smaller-than-expected number of early votes means one of two things: 1) 2012 will see historically low voter turnout in Ohio; or 2) Mitt Romney has a much better chance at Ohio than polls assumed.

Late Monday night the Ohio Secretary of State released the “final” early voting results from Ohio’s counties. The results got the attention — and slight consternation — of the New York Times’ Nate Silver. Dave Wasserman kindly put the data into a spreadsheet here, which tabulates early voting results by county and compares that data to early voting results from 2008. Wasserman’s spreadsheet also notes Kerry’s 2004 margins and Obama’s 2008 margins, allowing one to effectively deduce the partisan-leanings of each county.

In a discussion on Twitter, Silver and Wasserman focused largely on the surprise changes in turnout in many of Ohio’s counties. While total early voting in Ohio only increased by 2.44% from 2008, early voting in counties that voted heavily for Kerry/Obama declined 4.1% while counties that voted heavily Bush/McCain increased their early voting by a shocking 14.39%. Wasserman, while still predicting an Obama victory, suggested that trend meant a tighter race in Ohio than expected and suggested it might undercut Nate Silver’s famous forecast. Nate Silver’s response: “I’ll stick with the 538 forecast in OH. I disagree that the early voting data there provides much reason to doubt the polls.”

Seemingly overlooked by Silver, however, during the discussion of county-by-county results was the simple number of total reported early votes: a meager 1,787,346. As stated above, this number shows a 2.44% increase in early voting from 2008 — but the number is still surprisingly low. Virtually every Ohio poll this cycle was weighted on the basis that early voting would occupy a massive chunk of the total Ohio vote. Rasmussen’s final poll ceded 40% of the total vote to early voters (EVs). PPP gave EV’s a more reasonable 35%. The Columbus Dispatch calculated early voting to take up an astounding 47% of the total Ohio vote. Almost every other Ohio poll seems to have weighted early voting between 35% and 45% of the total vote.

The reported early voting numbers, however, show that virtually every single Ohio poll overestimated the amount of early votes cast. If early voting is calculated at 1,787,346, in order for total voter turnout to rival 2004 numbers, early voting cannot occupy more than 32% of the total votes cast — and even in that scenario, that high of a percentage means that total voter turnout will be lower than it was in 2008. In order for turnout to match 2008 levels, early voting can only account for 31% of total votes cast.

The next important piece of data is what the polls consistently report: Obama leads by huge margins among early voters but trails Romney among those who say they will vote on election day. This inverse in voting segments is why the proportion of early votes in the total votes — and that virtually every poll overestimated this proportion — is so tantamount. In most polls (which usually only have Obama leading by a small margin, although some give him a more comfortable ~+5%), lowering the percentage of early votes in the polling sample means lowering Obama’s lead drastically. And when Obama’s lead is only one or two percentage points, that can mean handing the election to Mitt Romney.

Our forecast is based largely on the reported margins between Romney and Obama among early voters and election day voters as reported by the Columbus Dispatch, Rasmussen, and other polls (all polling data considered is represented in the graphic below). The Columbus Dispatch gives Obama +15% among early voters; Rasmussen gives him a much wider 23%. Other polls for Ohio EVs: CNN/Opinion Research, Obama +28; Gravis Marketing, Obama +13; PPP, Obama +21. For our forecast we assumed a more conservative Obama +18 among EVs, averaging Rasmussen and the Columbus Dispatch.

In 2008 Obama won 58% of early voting against John McCain, who had virtually no get-out-the-vote infrastructure in Ohio; our model, giving Obama a 18% lead, again assumes he will win that 58% of early voters despite the fact that Mitt Romney is putting forth a much more competitive get-out-the-vote campaign and disregarding the GOP-leaning trend in early voting results of individual Ohio counties. When one considers the results from individual Ohio counties this cycle, Obama’s actual margin among EVs may actually be much lower (although without specific partisan data, it’s also possible that Obama’s margins have actually increased — although this seems extraordinarily more unlikely). But because this is impossible to determine without actual breakdowns of the early vote, which are not yet available, those implications are not included in this model.

In determining the margin among election day voters, the same polls were considered. For election day voters, Rasmussen has Romney +15; Columbus Dispatch, Romney +11; and CNN/Opinion Research, Romney +13. PPP and Gravis Marketing both had Romney’s election day margins at a much smaller +3. For our forecast, we assume Romney’s election day voter margins at 13%, an average of the first three polls. The consistency and disparity between the first three and the latter two polls made it difficult to average them since margins of error do not explain such a clear discrepancy between the two groups.

In this scenario — which seems to be supported by the majority of polls and early voting trends (but is notably not supported by all polls, as seen in the previous paragraph) — Romney should win Ohio. Based on these assumptions — which in turn are based on a combination of polling data and the state’s actual reported early vote — if early voting accounts for 32% of the vote (a very conservative number which would place total voter turnout slightly below that of 2004), Romney wins by a whopping 50.9% to Obama’s 47.8%. The higher voter turnout is — and therefore the lower the percentage of early votes in total votes — the higher Romney’s margin becomes.

In this scenario, even if we assume our model’s margins between Obama and Romney among early voters and election day voters are somehow skewed in Romney’s favor, Romney still has padding that those margins could be reduced and he still wins. If early voting is only 31% of the total vote — putting Ohio’s total vote at just above 2008 levels — Romney has incredibly more wiggle room.

  http://josephantley.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/ohioresults.png

The lower-than-anticipated turnout among early voters suggests the Obama campaign’s lead in Ohio was largely hot air. And this does not even seriously consider the county-by-county early voting results, which appear to be even more damaging to Obama. 

Reasons Why This Projection May Turn Out to be Wrong

·         In the case that the final early voting numbers reported by the Ohio secretary of state are incorrect and the final early voting results will include statistically significant additions, obviously this projection will have no meaning.

·         As seen above, some of the polling data used in the projection (such as Romney’s margin among election day voters) is supported by several independent polling organizations but not by some others. If it turns out that the fewer polls’ results were right, then obviously our entire model is skewed too heavily towards Romney.

·         Some have raised the possibility that effects from Hurricane Sandy stifled early voting in the final days and these early voters will simply vote for Obama on election day, increasing his election day margins beyond what polls indicated. In this scenario the polls are essentially still correct; Obama’s early voting margin was simply reallocated to his election day margin. There is no solid data to show that this is the case, but it is certainly possible.

·         There is always the chance that the government and electorate will decide simply to defer to Nate Silver’s forecast and forget this whole voting nonsense. Since our forecast is based largely on actual votes, not subjectively weighted aggregates of polls, this would make our projection essentially meaningless.

Obama and Libya, Incompetence, Deceit, or Both

It is beyond comprehension that the Obama administration has so fundamentally botched their response (s) to the Benghazi attack on the U.S. Ambassador and other Americans.  The fact that they botched, or rather failed to protect our citizens has been well articulated. (see this statement by Judge Jeanine. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg-e71IDAUw&feature=share).

It was September 11th, everyone knew that this would be a day to be especially sensitive to the possibility/probability of a terrorist attack.  Terrorists have a penchant for punctuating their violence on meaningful dates... it is apparently a terrorist creed to instill irony in their terror actions.

Libya has been and is a hotbed of terrorist activity and support.  Requests for additional security went unheeded.

The first statements from the White House and the State Department blamed an unreleased anti-Islamic film and they rushed to condemn it (free speech in America, that is constitutionally protected by the way).  This "theory" of causation for the attack was quickly debunked by nearly every credible source within hours, not days.

For the next ten days, no one from the White House or the State Department acknowledged this was a terrorist attack that was planned and executed by extremely well armed and prepared insurgents.  This was no spontaneous act.

Mr. President, to say you "didn't know" implies that you did not have the resources to obtain real time information.  (We now know that there was real time information available).

To say you "didn't know" implies that if the resources were available, that no one, not one of your cabinet level or other staff told you about the real time events and then didn't tell you the truth while your press secretary and ambassador to the U.N. were spinning the "we didn't know" story.

It is the height of incredulity to assume you didn't know.  You are the President of the United States with a situation room, named such because it gathers all intelligence to give YOU the situation so YOU can make decisions in consultation with your cabinet and staff.

I don't believe for a minute that You "didn't know".  That would be an indictment of too many agencies and departments and people who live day in and day out to protect the U.S. and its citizens.

I would have been willing to give You, the President, the benefit of the doubt if you had even responded with a statement that said, "Look, this is a National Security issue and there are more lives at stake that we are protecting and we are protecting the interests of the U.S. and are unable to get into the details of this situation at the moment."  That at least would have implied that You were engaged in the process, that you knew what was going on, but there were higher National interests at stake here.

Instead, You blamed the video, You blamed the lack of information, You blamed others, You even blamed Governor Romney!.  That may work in political elections, but it never works as Commander in Chief of the United States of America.  The blame game shows weakness and disregard for those you serve, starting first with those have died and those who are still in harms way, and the citizens of this country.

The truth is coming out.  It shows that You knew everything, You had the resources to respond, and You chose not to even try and save the lives of your ambassador and those serving with him.  If there was a valid reason for not acting, great... tell is there was a reason for not acting... You don't even have to tell us why if it is a National Security issue... but at least You should be straight with the families of those who lost their lives and with the American people. At best You have been disingenuous, at worst You have outright lied.  You cannot feign not knowing, You cannot stand behind the excuse of incompetence (though if that were true it would demand a change at every level starting with You!).

Either way, it is an indictment of You as President, You know... where the buck stops.

Mitt Romney’s Quiet Prayer Amidst The Sound Of Thunder

Red Rocks Colorado is a fabulous venue and famous for great concerts of every musical genre.  As a site for a political rally it was equal in every way to any event held there.  And then this small anecdote, witnessed but by a few during a time of frenetic energy and acclaim... a reflective moment of humility and acknowledgement, something I want in my President. 


It was described as something very peaceful and powerful that came over that backstage area for a moment. And the governor, he lowers his head and his eyes shut tight and you could see him take a slow deep breath and then he lets it out and says quietly, but just loud enough for some to hear, “Lord, if this is your will, please help to make me worthy. Please give me the strength Lord.” And then his eyes open up, and he’s back to smiling and laughing and shaking hands and being the candidate once again.

http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/10/25/white-house-insider-mitt-romneys-quiet-prayer-amidst-the-sound-of-thunder/